CIA Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
This electronic instant download pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating,
and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate
of Intelligence. Four of the articles also appeared in the Intelligence Community
journal Studies in Intelligence during that time frame. The information is relatively
timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis.
The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how
people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous
information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to
intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. I
then translated the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can
understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems
intelligence analysts face.
C O N T E N T S
PART I--OUR MENTAL
MACHINERYChapter 1: Thinking About Thinking
Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't
We See What Is There to Be Seen?
Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We
Remember What We Know?
PART II--TOOLS FOR
THINKINGChapter 4: Strategies for Analytical
Judgment: Transcending the Limits
of Incomplete Information
Chapter 5: Do You Really Need
Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical
Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing
HypothesesPART III--COGNITIVE BIASES
Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive
Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of
EvidenceChapter 11: Biases in Perception of
Cause and EffectChapter 12: Biases in Estimating
ProbabilitiesChapter 13: Hindsight Biases in
Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence
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